Call For Paper - Upcoming Conferences

Research Article | Open Access
Volume 7 | Issue 3 | Year 2020 | Article Id. IJEMS-V7I3P117 | DOI : https://doi.org/10.14445/23939125/IJEMS-V7I3P117

How Likely is an Economic Depression?

Camilo Sarmiento

Citation :

Camilo Sarmiento, "How Likely is an Economic Depression?," International Journal of Economics and Management Studies, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 115-121, 2020. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.14445/23939125/IJEMS-V7I3P117

Abstract

This paper uses a panel vector-autoregressive (VAR) process with different distributional assumptions to forecast GDP contraction severities and identify the likelihood of a depression threshold event across main Latin American countries.  We compare these results to similar hypothetical events for U.S., U.K., France, and Canada.This paper uses a panel vector-autoregressive (VAR) process with different distributional assumptions to forecast GDP contraction severities and identify the likelihood of a depression threshold event across main Latin American countries.  We compare these results to similar hypothetical events for U.S., U.K., France, and Canada.

Keywords

Economic Depression, Latin America, Tail Event, Vector Autoregressive Model.

References

[1] Aguiar, M , G. Gopinath.,Defaultable Debt, Interest Rates, and the Current Account.Journal of International Economics, 69(2006) 64-83.
[2] Calomiris, C.W., G. Gorton.,The Origins of Banking Panics: Models, Facts, and Bank Regulation.” In Financial Markets and Financial Crises, edited by R. Glenn Hubbard, Chicago: University of Chicago Press,(1991)109–73. 
[3] Caprio, G., D. Klingebiel, L. Laeven, and G. Noguera  Banking Crisis Database.In Systemic Financial Crises: Containment and Resolution, edited by Patrick Honohan and Luc Laeven, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press(2005)307– 40. 
[4] Chatterjee, S.From Cycles to Shocks: Progress in Business-Cycle Theory.Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review, (2000) 27-37.
[5] Cole, H.L., and L.E. Ohanian A Second Look at the U.S. Great Depression from a Neoclassical Perspective. In Timothy J. Kehoe and Edward C. Prescott, editors, Great depressions of the twentieth century.  Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, (2007)21–58. 
[6] Conesa, J.C., T.J.,  Kehoe, K. Ruhl Modeling Great Depressions: The Depression in Finland in the 1990s NBER Working Paper No. 13591(2007).
[7] Goodwin, R.M., Secular and Cyclical Aspects of the Multiplier and the Accelerator. In Income, Employment and Public Policy: Essays in Honor of Alvin H. Hansen. New York: W. W. Norton & Co(1948).
[8] Kehoe, T.J., and E.C. Prescott Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century. Review of Economic Dynamics, 5(2002) 1–18
[9] Reinhart, C.M. , K. S. Rogoff The Aftermath of Financial Crises.American Economic Review, 99(2009) 466-472.